中国农业能耗碳排放脱钩的影响因素解析

An Analysis of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Decoupling by Chinese Agricultural Energy Consumption

在"机械化+化学化=农业现代化"的发展模式下,中国农业能耗碳排放的快速上升,不能简单理解为只是化石能源消费增长的结果,而是人口增长、经济发展、能源结构、能源效率等方面因素的共同作用所导致。发展低碳农业首先要从影响农业能耗碳排放"脱钩与否"的因素入手,厘清各因素在其中的作用。基于Tapio脱钩模型和Kaya恒等式,运用LMDI分解法构建了扩展的Tapio脱钩指数分解模型,对1980-2012年中国农业能耗碳排放的脱钩情况进行定量分析。结果表明,过去30多年来,中国农业能耗碳排放与农业经济增长总体呈现出由"弱脱钩"向"增长连接"转移的趋势,二者之间脱钩状态的稳定性在变差;能源强度降低是实现中国农业能耗碳排放脱钩的关键性因素,但近年来已显现出瓶颈;与此同时,能源结构和产出规模因素对碳排放脱钩的反向抑制作用在不断加强;人口规模虽然对碳排放脱钩工作也起到负面作用,但近年来影响趋于下降。

With the development of modern agriculture,the carbon emissions by energy consumption have been becoming the primary source of agricultural carbon emissions in China. Based on Tapio decoupling model and Kaya identities,using LMDI method,the article builds an extended Tapio decoupling model. Then utilizing time series data of Chinese agricultural energy carbon emissions and gross output value of agriculture in 1980- 2012,we make a quantitative analysis of the decoupling relationship between the above two. The results show that the decoupling status of carbon emissions from energy consumption witnessing a transformation from weak decoupling to growth links,and the stability of the decoupling relationship is reduced,too. Decrease of energy intensity is the key factor leading to decoupling of carbon emission,but bottlenecks are already appearing; the expansion of economic scale and the adjustment of energy structure have a negative effect on the decoupling,and the effect strengthened gradually; while the variance of population which also has a negative contributions to the decoupling,but the influence was limited.