政府债务对经济增长影响的阈值效应

The Threshold Effect of Government Debt on Economic Growth

欧债危机后,政府债务与经济增长的关系受到学术界和各国政府高度关注,二者关系状况将影响高债务国家下一步的财政政策走向。我国政府债务水平在次贷危机之后增长迅速,实证研究两者关系具有理论和实践指导意义。以69个国家1980-2012年的数据为样本,运用面板门槛模型研究政府债务与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示政府债务对经济增长的影响存在阈值效应:当债务水平较低时,政府债务对经济增长起到促进作用;而当超过一定水平时,则对经济增长有阻碍作用,并且这一阈值水平为78.5%。研究结论一方面证明了"稳健阈值"的存在,为当前这一问题的学术争论增添了"阈值论"的证据,另一方面也启示各国应该采取措施积极控制债务水平,避免对经济增长产生负面影响。同时表明,当前我国政府债务水平远低于阈值,因此仍可适当采用扩张性财政政策稳定经济增长。

The relationship between government debt and economic growth has become not only a hot issue in academic research after European debt crisis,but also a key concern of European government,and even decides the direction of the fiscal policy. China＇s government debt has been growing rapidly after the subprime crisis,studying the relationship of government debt and economic growth has not only academic significance,but also practical significance. This paper uses a panel data set of 69 countries over the period 1980- 2012 to analyze the relationship between government debt and economic growth. We find that the debt ratio has a threshold effect on economic growth. Government debt will benefit economic growth when the debt to GDP ratio is low（ below 78. 5%）. For high debt ratios（ above 78. 5%）,additional debt will have negative impact on economic activity. This paper proves that the ＂robust threshold＂does exists,and provides new evidence for the ＂threshold theory＂. Every country should control the level of government debt in order to avoid the negative impact.