农险财政补贴影响农户行为及种植结构的传导机制——基于保费补贴前后全国面板数据比较分析

The Transmission Mechanism of Crop Insurance Subsidy on Farmers' Behaviors and Farming Structure-Based on a comparative study on national panel data before and after the application of premium subsidy

本文利用全国31个省的粮食作物面板数据,构建静态和动态面板计量模型,对2007年中央财政农业保险保费补贴政策实施前后两阶段进行比较分析,研究农业保险保费补贴对农户参保行为和农户生产行为的影响,以及对种植结构的传导机制。实证结果表明,在农险财政补贴下,农业保险需求与农业种植结构之间存在着相互制约关系,传导机制为农险财政补贴激励农户参保行为,并引发种植结构调整影响农业保险需求;农户参保后农业收入水平预期发生改变,对农户生产行为产生影响,又反过来引发种植结构调整。在农险财政补贴下,农业保险对粮食作物收入起到稳定作用,一定程度上固化了农户生产行为和种植结构,并引发种植结构从低保险项目向高保险项目转移。

Using nationwide panel data of crops between 2001 and 2012, this paper built up static and dynamic measurement models to study the situations before and after the year 2007 when the central government started to subsidize on agricultural insurance, in particular, the transmission mechanism of farming structure and the changes of farmers＇ behaviors due to the subsidy policy. Results of the comparative analysis suggested that, with the subsidy policy, demand for crop insurance and crop farming structure exhibited a mutually restrictive relationship. Subsi- dized crop insurance encouraged participating behaviors of farmers, which led to the adjustment of farming structure and changes in demands for crop insurance; insured farmers expected crop income, which resulted in adjustments of farmer＇s production behavior and farming structure conversely. To conclude, subsidized crop insurance stabilized crop income, solidified the farmer＇ s production behavior and farming structure to certain extent, and led to the farm- ing structure change from low insured crops to high insured crops.