基于蒙特卡罗模拟的水电BOT项目特许期决策

Concession Period Decision of Hydropower BOT Project Based on the Monte Carlo Simulation

为合理测算水电BOT项目特许期,综合运用净现值法和蒙特卡罗模拟方法,构建水电BOT项目特许期决策仿真模型。首先综合考虑水电BOT项目建设运营方式与特点,采用净现值法构建项目特许期决策模型;然后分析项目建设运营风险因素,将影响特许期的关键性因素分为确定和不确定两类;最后基于影响因素的概率分布特点采用蒙特卡罗方法对特许期决策模型进行求解,计算水电BOT项目的合理特许期,并着重分析了年发电量和上网电价变动对特许期的影响。结果表明:该模型在水电BOT项目特许期决策中有着较好的适用性,可以为政府和企业投资与运作水电BOT项目提供决策参考。

In order to reasonably measure the concession period of hydropower BOT project, the concession period decision simulation modelof hydropower BOT project was built by using the net present value method and Monte Carlo simulation method integrity. Firstly, with theconsideration of the operation way and the characteristics of hydropower BOT project, a concession period decision model was built byadopting the net present value method. And then the key factors which influence the concession period were divided into certain and uncertainby analyzing the risk factors of the construction and operational characteristics of the hydropower BOT project. Finally, the concessiondecision model was simulated based on the probability distribution of factors through using Monte Carlo methods to solve reasonableconcession period of Hydropower BOT projects, the change of the power generating capacity and feed-in tariff which influence the concessionperiod was analyzed emphatically. The results show that this model has a good applicability of the hydropower BOT project in decisions andcan provide a reference for the government and business to invest and operate the hydropower BOT projects.