消费结构对产业结构与经济增长的空间效应——基于空间面板模型的研究

Research on the Spatial Effect of Consumption Structure on Industrial Structure and Economic Growth:Based on Spatial Panel Model

基于1997-2012年中国省域面板数据,采用空间自相关方法和空间计量模型,探讨了城乡居民消费结构对中国产业结构以及经济增长的空间效应。结果显示:中国省域城乡居民消费结构、产业结构和人均GDP的空间分布具有显著的空间集聚特征。城乡居民消费结构优化对本地区产业结构升级和经济增长具有积极的推动作用,城镇居民消费结构的空间溢出效应为显著负效应,农村居民消费结构的空间溢出效应则不显著。最后,根据城乡居民消费结构显示的不同空间效应,提出政策建议。

Based on China＇s provincial data（including municipalities and autonomous regions）from1997to 2012,this paper,using spatial autocorrelation analysis method and spatial panel econometric model,explores the spatial effect of urban and rural resident consumption structure on China＇s industrial structure and economic growth.The results indicate that firstly,at provincial level,China＇s urban and rural resident consumption structure,industrial structure and per capita GDP exhibit an obvious spatial agglomeration.Secondly,the optimization of urban and rural resident consumption structure gives strong impetus to the upgrading of regional industrial structure and economic growth.While urban resident consumption structure presents obvious spatial spillover effects,the spatial spillover effects in rural resident consumption structure has been unobvious.Finally,this paper,based on different spatial effects exhibited in urban and rural resident structure,proposes some relevant and practical suggestions for policy making.