基于效用风险熵的突发事件应急方案动态调整

Dynamic adjustment for emergency decision-making based on utility risk entropy

针对突发事件不确定性情形下决策者的心理行为特征,综合考虑决策者心理感知的效用价值与结果情景发生概率两个属性,对决策者的动态参照点和心理感知进行分析,构建了一种基于效用风险熵的应急决策动态调整方法。利用前景理论,将突发事件实时经济损失值与决策者动态调整的心理参考点进行分析,作为决策者心理感知效用的"损益值",以此计算决策者的心理感知效用价值。进一步结合不同应急方案下的结果情景发生概率,引入风险熵理论对动态应急方案的风险进行合理计算,得到应急方案动态调整的一种测度,给出应急方案动态调整方法和步骤。最后,通过实例计算,验证该方法的合理有效性。

With respect to decision-makers^ psychological behavior characteristics under the uncertain emergencies considering two properties of decision-makers, psychological perceived utility value and the result scenariooccurring probability, a dynamic adjustment method for emergency decision-making based on utility riskentropy is built by analyzing the dynamic reference point and psychological perception of decision-makers. Usingthe prospect theory, the i4profit and loss value of the psychological perception is obtained by comparing the real-time economic loss of emergency with the psychological dynamic adjustment point to calculate the psychologicalperceived utility value of decision-makers. Further, combining the result scenario occurring probability ofeach emergency plan and reasonably, the risk entropy theory is used to calculate risk of dynamic emergency？ themeasure of dynamic adjustment methods and procedures is obtained. Finally, an example is given to verify thereasonable effectiveness of the method.