徐州市水安全综合评价与预测

Evaluation and prediction of water security in Xuzhou City

采用压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型建立徐州市水安全评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标权重,对徐州市2009~2014年水安全状况进行综合评价,并在此基础上利用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对徐州市2015~2020年的水安全状况进行预测.结果表明：徐州市2009~2014年的水安全状况处于基本安全状态,水系统基本能满足社会经济发展的需求,但评价年间状态因子起伏较大;2015~2020年城市水安全状况逐步好转,由基本安全转为非常安全,表明未来数年徐州市水安全整体状况持续改善.

Using pressure-state-response（PSR）model,an index system of evaluating the water security in Xuzhou City is established,and the AHP is adopted to determine the weight of each index.The water security situation from 2009 to 2014in Xuzhou City is evaluated comprehensively,and using the gray prediction model GM（1,1）,the water security situation from 2015 to 2020is predicted.The results show that the water security situation in Xuzhou City is safe basically in 2009~2014,water system can meet the demand of social economic development basically,but the state factor changes is bigger.The water security situation will improve gradually in 2015~2020from the basic security to very safe,which suggests that water security situation in Xuzhou City will continue to improve in the next few years.