基于前景理论的应急交通疏散路径选择模型

Model of Evacuation Route Choice in Emergency Traffic Based on Prospect Theory

为了能够更好地反应在应急交通疏散过程中被疏散者的行为决策反应,引用前景理论中的"有限理性"来描述不确定风险下的应急疏散行为。通过重新定义疏散中的"有效备选路径"这一概念,计算了各"有效备选路径"的前景值,从而确定前景理论值最大的有效备选路径作为应急疏散路径。算例证明了该路径选择结果更符合应急交通疏散下不确定情况的真实路网中的路径选择行为。研究结果对决策者在紧急环境下做出科学、有效的疏散决策具有一定的参考价值。

In order to better reflect the true response of evacuees＇ decision in emergency evacuation, ＂bounded rationality＂ in prospect theory was used to describe the evacuation behavior of the person under uncertain risk. The emergency evacuation routing which had the maximum prospect value was determined by redefining the concept of ＂effective alternative path＂ and calculating the prospect values of various effective alternative paths. Through an example of emergency evacuation, it is indicated that the result of the above route choice is more in line with the route choice behavior in the real road network under the uncertain conditions of emergency traffic evacuation. The research result is of certain referential value for the decision makers under emergency circumstances to make scientific and effective evacuation decision.