改进的案例推理方法在政府应急预留水量预测中的应用

Application of reasoning method of improved case to forecast of reserved water for governmental emergency

针对政府应急预留水量受突发事件影响而呈现出的不确定性、短暂性、周期性的特征,将改进的案例推理(CBR)方法应用于政府应急预留水量预测。通过引入虚拟变量描述定性因素,利用粗糙集理论对属性进行约简,基于相似案例集的历史应急需水量,融入时间序列权重,对当前政府应急预留水量作出预测。将方法应用于某危险品泄露污染河流的突发事故,验证了其实用价值。

Aimed at the influence of emergencies on the reserved water for government emergency so as to appear the features of bing uncertain, short and periodic,the paper applied the case reasoning method to the forecast of reserved water for governmental emergency. It introduced dummy variables to describe the qualitative factors and reduced attribute based on rough set theory. Based on the water demand of histori- cal emergency of e similar cases and the weight of time series, the paper forecasted the reserved water de- mand for government emergency. Finally, it applied the method to the emergency of river pollution acci- dent resulted from the leakage of hazardous chemical and illustrated its practical value.