双边贸易成本抑制了中国制造业企业的对外直接投资吗?

Does Bilateral Trade Cost Inhibit Chinese Manufacturers' Outward Foreign Direct Investment?

文章首先在异质性企业理论框架的基础上分析了双边贸易成本对母国企业进入东道国市场决策的作用机制，继而利用《中国工业企业数据库》和《境外投资企业（机构）名录》匹配合并后的微观制造业企业数据，运用条件IJogit模型实证检验了2000～2007年间中国与全球100个东道国（地区）的双边贸易成本对中国企业对外直接投资的影响。基于整体和子样本的回归结果均表明，中国与东道国（地区）双边贸易成本的上升显著降低了中国企业对外直接投资的几率。上述发现意味着“就近集中权衡”理论关于贸易成本与对外直接投资正相关的预期对于中国的制造业企业而言并不成立，其背后蕴含的政策涵义是，降低中国与东道国间的双边贸易成本应成为进一步推动中国企业对外直接投资的题中应有之义。

Based on the framework of heterogeneous firm,we first construct a theoretical model which characterizes the mechanism between bilateral trade cost and domestic enterprises' decision of overseas market entering. Using merging micro-data set by incorporating Chinese industrial enterprises database and overseas investment enterprises( institutions) list database,we empirically test the influence of bilateral trade cost on China's OFDI involving in 100 host countries(regions) from 2000 to 2007. The results show that the rising of bilateral trade costs significantly hinders China's OFDI in host countries(regions),which has been confirmed either in whole samples or in subsamples. The findings reveal that proximity-concentration trade-off theory doesn't hold in China. The embedded policy implies that,in order to further the development of China's OFDI,reducing bilateral trade cost between China and host countries(regions) should be regarded as the essentials.