区域城市化进程与服务业发展水平的互动能力分析

基于2005-2014年我国内陆31个省市区的面板数据,利用单位根检验、协整检验及误差修正模型,实证分析了区域城市化进程与服务业发展水平之间的互动关系。研究结果表明,我国东、中、西部地区城市化进程与服务业发展水平之间存在互动关系,东北地区城市化进程对服务业发展水平具有单向因果关系。从长期来看,东、中、西部地区城市化进程对服务业发展水平具有明显推动作用,服务业发展水平也对城市化进程具有显著的促进作用,但不同区域互动弹性系数不同;从短期来说,东部地区城市化进程与服务业发展水平存在双向因果关系,中西部地区城市化进程与服务业发展水平因果关系不明显。最后,根据地区特征,提出促进城市化和服务业协调发展的建议。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014 in China, this paper utilizes ADF test, co-integration test and pan- el-based error correction models to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization process and service industry development. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between urbanization process and service industry development in the eastern, central and western regions. The urbanization process to service industry has a one-way causal relationship in the northeast area. In the long run, urbanization in these regions has a significant role in promoting the development of service industry, and the development level of service industry has a significant role in promoting the process of urbanization, but different regional interaction coefficient of elasticity is different in the eastern, middle and western areas. In the short term, there is a two-way causal relationship between urbanization and service industry in the eastern part of the city, and the causal relationship between service industry and urbanization in the western region is not obvious. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions to improve the coordinated development of urbanization and service industry based on the features of the regions.