人口变迁与居民消费--基于区域面板数据的实证研究

本文基于1995-2014年我国内地30个省(市、区)的数据(未包括西藏的数据)建立面板模型,通过控制收入因素、市场因素和政策因素,实证考察了人口因素对居民消费需求的影响。结果发现:人口规模、人口城镇化和人口素质对居民消费率均有正向促进作用,劳动年龄人口占比与居民消费率存在负向关系。进一步测算各个因素对居民消费率影响的贡献率,其中,人口因素中城镇化的贡献率最大,其次是人口素质和劳动年龄人口占比。据此,提出短期推进城镇化建设、提高城镇化质量,长期提升人口素质和挖掘老年消费需求来扩大居民消费需求的建议。

This paper establishes a panel model based on the data of china＇s 30 provinces from 1995 to 2014 to empirically investigate the effect of demographic factors on consumption demand, by controlling the income factors, market factors and policy factors. The results show that population size, urbanization and population quality have positive effects on consumption, and the ratio of working-age population has a negative effect on it. Also, we calculate the contribution of factors on consumption rate. Among them, urbanization is the largest of other demographic factors, followed by population quality and then the ratio of working-age population. Thus, we draw the suggestions： to increase consumption demand, in the short run, we can promote the construction and quality of urbanization; in the long run, we can advance the population quality and stimulate the consumption demand of old age.