灌溉水资源安全阈值确定与高效配置

Safety Thresholds and Efficient Allocation for Irrigation Water Resources

针对灌溉水资源供需矛盾突出且用水效率低等问题,寻求能够保证灌溉水资源可持续利用的安全阈值并基于此进行高效配水具有重要意义。采用模糊识别模型计算灌溉水资源与社会经济生态协调发展的协调度,并以此协调度作为状态变量,结合通过因子分析法获得的控制变量拟合尖点突变模型,通过突变判别式确定灌溉水资源安全阈值。在此基础上,以灌溉水生产率最大为目标函数构建灌溉水资源优化配置模型。以黑河中游甘州区、临泽县、高台县为例,得到三区(县)的灌溉用水安全阈值下限分别为4.88,3.02和2.69亿m^3,灌溉水生产力为1.58kg/m^3。得到的结果可为研究区域和类似地区提供技术参考。

Considering the prominent supply-demand contradiction and inefficient use of irrigation water, it is of significance to deter- mine the safety threshold which ensures the sustainable use of irrigation water and thus guide the efficient water allocation. Firstly, the coordination degree of the harmonious development of water resources, social economy and ecology was calculated by using varia-ble fuzzy recognition model. Secondly, the cusp catastrophic model was fitted based on the status variable （the coordination degree） and control variables that are determined by the factor analysis method, thus the irrigation water safety thresholds were obtained. Thirdly, an irrigation water optimal allocation model was established with the aim of maximizing irrigation water productivity on the basis of safety threshold. Taking Ganzhou district, Linze County and Gaotai County in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin as an example, the results show that the irrigation water safety thresholds for the three regions are 4. 88, 3.02 and 2.69 × 10^8 m^3 , respec- tively, and the irrigation water productivity reaches to 1.58 kg/m^3, The obtained results provide a certain technique reference for the studied and similar regions.