股市对业绩预告修正一视同仁吗?

Does the Stock Market Treat Management Earnings Forecast Equally?

本文搜集我国A股上市公司2002年至2011年间发布的所有业绩预告修正公告中董事会披露的业绩修正原因说明,首次系统地分析了我国独特的业绩预告制度下的业绩修正原因如何影响股市投资者对业绩修正的判断。研究结果显示,公司解释业绩预告变动原因时带有倾向性,公司对利好消息和利空消息的解释会倾向于不同的原因,而且业绩变动原因对股市投资人理解业绩预告有重大的影响。如果公司将原因归于公司不可控的宏观原因、不可控的会计因素和会计记账错误,股市对利好的业绩修正反应更强烈,也能削弱利空消息对股市的打击程度。如果是其它原因或公司不说明原因,股市的反应会更加糟糕。本文为资本市场投资者了解业绩修正原因说明的经济后果提供了实证证据。

This paper hand-collect the explanations for revisions of management earnings forecast for all companies in the A-share Chinese market from 2002 to 2011. It examines how various explanations that the board of directors is required to disclose affect the stock market reactions to the management forecast revisions. The results show that companies tend to explain the positive news and negative news differently, and that the explanations provided have significant impact to how investors interpret the revisions. When companies attribute the forecast revisions to uncontrollable macro-economic factors, uncontrollable accounting rule changes, or accounting errors discovered by auditors, the market reacts more significantly to positive revisions and less to negative news than under other reasons. Additionally, when companies attribute the forecast revisions to other operating reasons or provide no reasons to explain the forecast revisions, the stock market tends to ignore positive news and punish bad news. This paper provides empirical evidence on the significant economic consequences of disclosing reasons for management earnings forecast revisions by the board of directors.