中日房地产价格变动对居民消费影响的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of the Impacts of House Price Fluctuation on Residential Consumption between China and Japan

房地产业的发展对一国国民经济通常有着重要的影响,其中一个重要表现为住宅价格的波动会影响一国居民消费行为进而对国家内需起到重要的拉动或挤出作用。中国和日本都经历了房地产成为经济增长主要动力源的阶段,但在市场发展、政策导向、消费理念等方面又存在巨大不同。通过实证分析对比中日不同时期房地产价格对居民消费的影响发现,日本住房价格波动会正向带动居民消费增长,但是以1990年房产泡沫为界则从高拉动效应转为低拉动效应;中国房价波动反而会对居民消费造成挤出效应,但挤出力度自2008年起有所缓解。

The development of real estate industry usually has important influence on one country＇s national economy. One of the important channels is that the housing price fluctuation will affect resi- dential consumers＂ behavior and then will pull up or crowd out the country＇s domestic demand. China and Japan have both experienced the period when the real estate market became the main pulling power of domestic economic growth. However between China and Japan there are still so many differ- ent things such as the market development, policy guidance and consumption concept. This paper emphatically analyzes the effect of housing wealth on residential consumption both in China and Ja- pan during different periods. The result shows that Japan＇s house price fluctuation has positively promoted the growth of residential consumption. But it is unfortunate that the trend turned from high pulling effect to low pulling effect after the property bubble burst in 1990. Meanwhile conversely China＇S house price fluctuation has exerted crowding out effect on the residential consumption, but it has relieved since 2008.