农村劳动力流动微观决策分析

The Research on the Micro Decision Mechanism of Rural Labor Flow

本文利用2010年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据并从家庭决策角度分析家庭禀赋对农村劳动力流动微观决策的影响,进一步探讨农村劳动力省内与跨省流动微观内在形成机制。结果表明,家庭人力资本中的家庭规模每增加一个单位,家庭成员外出务工概率将增加3.5倍,而人均受教育水平较高的家庭外出务工概率较低;家庭社会资本对农村劳动力流动产生负向影响,但在有成员外出家庭中,拥有丰富社会资本家庭的劳动力跨省流动概率较大;家庭经济资本的收入效应将大于替代效应,家庭经济资本越丰富,劳动力外出打工概率越低;家庭自然资本的替代效应将大于收入效应,丰富的家庭自然资本对劳动力流动具有促进效应;此外,农村劳动力流动还存在明显的同群效应。

Using the data from China Family Panel Studies 2010, this paper tests the effects of family deci- sion and family endowment on rural labor migration, including both the intra-province migration and inter-province migration. We draw several conclusions：first, the family human capital has a significant impact on the labor mobility, and the family member outdoor-workers probability will be increased by 35 times when the family size every one unit increasing; second, the family social capital has a negative impact on rural labor migration, and the family labor with abundant social capital will have high probability of cross-regional flow; third, the income effect of family capital will be greater than the substitution effect, and the labor whose family economic capital is rich will have a lower probability of migrant workers ; but the substitution effect of the natural capital is greater than the income effect, and family natural capital will have a promoting effect on the labor migration ;in addition, there is an obvious group effect of rural labor migration.