中国行业并购动态演变路径及政策、金融环境影响分析

Analysis on Dynamic Merger and Acquisition Path Evolution of Chinese Industries and Impacts of Policies and Financial Environment Factors

本文使用函数性数据分析方法中相平面图技术,考察中国三大行业及其子行业并购重组动态路径演变,同时探索国家行业政策和经济金融环境的变化对并购动态演变的影响.本文发现随着产业经济规模的发展,整个并购重组频次呈现上升趋势;第一产业的动态演变路径呈现出低-高-低的"收缩螺旋"特征,第二、三产业的发展呈现出低-高-低-高的"扩张螺旋"动态演变路径;股权分置改革、金融危机、行业政策的出台等事件严重影响相关产业的并购重组动态演变路径.

This paper studies the dynamic merger and acquisition （M^A） path evolution of the three major in- dustries and their subsectors in China by the phase plot of the functional data analysis technique. We explore how industry policies, economic and financial environments impact the dynamic evolution of M＆A. It is found that the frequency of M＆A is increasing with the industrial economic development. The dynamic evolution path of the primary industry presents a low -- high -- low ＂shrinking spiral＂, while the secondary and tertiary industries present a low -- high -- low -- high ＂expanding spiral＂ evolution path. The equity division reform, the financial crisis, the industry policy and the unexpected events seriously affect the dynamic evolution of M＆A.