上海市对长三角经济圈经济辐射力的计量分析

The econometric analysis of economic radiation force of Shanghai city in the Yangtze river economic circle

研究上海经济影响力以及对长三角经济圈经济发展的推动作用,通过构建经济影响力综合评价模型,运用主成分分析,曲线拟合等方法,运用SPSS,EXCEL等软件对数据进行处理和求解.综合分析了2004—2013年上海市的经济影响力变化趋势,上海市对周边12个城市在外资引用方面的影响程度,以及经济辐射力对长三角经济圈内产业结构的影响.分析结果表明,上海市经济影响力逐年攀升,上海市外资利用存在溢出效应,促进周边城市外资利用额的增长,长三角经济圈内产业结构日益趋同这一现状,将会制约长三角地区的经济发展,经济圈内各城市应当加强经济合作,因地制宜,发展当地优势产业,创立各城市的品牌优势产业.

Studied on the economic influence of Shanghai and the economic growth driven by Shanghai in the Yangtze river delta economic circle.Established economic radiation force evaluation model model based on principal component analysis and curve fitting method.By using SPSS and EXCEL software,gave an analysis of the changing trend of Shanghai′s economic influence,and the impact on other 12 cities′ actual utilization of foreign capital,as well as the influence of economic radiation on the industrial structure of the Yangtze river delta economic circle from 2004 to 2013.The research draws the following conclusions,Shanghai＇s economic influence increased year by year,Shanghai′s actual utilization of foreign capital has a spillover effect which can promote the growth of foreign investment in the surrounding cities,and the industrial structure of Yangtze river delta is similar.In view of the present situation,the similar industrial structure will restrict economic development.To reverse this trend,the cities in the economic circle should strengthen economic cooperation,adjust measures to local conditions,develop the local dominant industries,and create the brand advantage industries of various cities.