基于房价收入比视角的内江市商品房住宅价格合理性分析

The Rationality Analysis of the Prices of Commericial Residential Housing in Neijiang——Based on the Ratio between Housing Price and Income

主要利用房价收入比指标来衡量内江市商品房住宅价格是否合理,并进一步判断其房地产市场是否健康.结果表明房价和人均住宅面积对内江市房价收入比的影响远超可支配收入,其中房价应是最主要的影响因素.内江市房价收入比整体偏高,会造成当地居民买房困难的现象,不利于房地产市场的健康发展.最后通过GM(1,1)模型对内江市未来的房价进行预测,内江市房价未来仍会上涨,需要特别注意.

The ratio between housing price and income was used as the principal indicator to judge the rationality of commercial residential housing price inNeijiang,and to further evaluate whether the housing market is developed in a healthy manner.The results showed that the housing price and the per capita living space have far greater influence on the ratio between housing price and income than the disposable income,of which the housing price is the predominant influencing factor.The ratio between housing price and income in Neijiang is on the whole too high,which leads to greater difficulty for people to afford for a house and thus does harm to the healthy development of the real estate market.Finally,GM（1,1）model was used to predict the future housing price in Neijiang and it finds that the housing price will continue a rising trend in the future.