我国保险业就业效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Employment Effect of the Insurance Industry in China

就业水平是一国经济发展中最重要的宏观指标之一。随着一国经济的增长，服务业将成为吸纳就业的主要产业。近年来，保险业作为我国现代服务业的重要支柱，其就业吸纳和拉动效应正逐渐显现。本文运用2000～2014年我国保险业发展的相关数据，通过就业弹性系数、结构偏离度方法，以及回归模型的研究方法，对保险业的直接和间接就业吸纳效应进行了实证分析。研究发现，我国保险业具有较高的就业弹性和较低的结构偏离度，表明保险业对就业有较强的直接吸纳效应；回归结果显示保费每增加l％，保险通过对国民经济的促进作用，将间接带动就业增加0．965％，表明保险业存在显著的间接就业拉动效应。分险种看，非寿险比寿险有更高的间接就业效应，说明非寿险类保险的风险管理功能较资金融通功能更为显著。依据实证结果预测，2020年我国保险业直接就业人数约为1450—1500万，保险业发展可间接带动就业人数约8000万人。

Employment is one of the most important macroeconomic indicators of a country＇ s economic development. As an economy grows, the service industry should be the key means for absorbing the labor force. In recent years, the insurance industry, as the mainstay of China＇ s modern service industry, is showing greater significance in absorbing and driving employment. In this paper, we used the data from 2000 to 2014, applied the research methods of employment elasticity, structural deviation and regression model to make an empirical analysis of the employment effect of the insurance industry. The study found that insurance had a high employment elasticity and a relatively low structural deviation, which indicates that the insurance industry has a strong direct effect on employment;the regression results showed that employment would indirectly increase 0. 965% with each 1% increase in premiums, which suggests that there also has a significant indirect effect on employment. And nonlife insurance has a higher indirect employment effect than life insurance, indicating that for non-life insurance business, its risk management function is more important than its financing function. According to the empirical results, the number of insurance employees will reach 14.5 - 15 million in 2020, and the insurance industry will indirectly absorb about 80 million labors.