中国商业保险和社会保险耦合协调关系及时空特征研究

The Coupling Coordination Representation and Its Spatiotemporal Characteristics between China's Commercial Insurance and Social Insurance

商业保险和社会保险存在密切联系。随着经济的发展，居民收入水平和生活水平的提高，社会保险已经远远不能满足居民对保障的需要，商业保险成为社会保险的有力补充。因此，研究二者之间耦合协调关系，实现二者协同发展具有重大意义。本文以2001—2013年全国30个省、市、自治区（除西藏）的数据为样本，重新构建商业保险和社会保险评价指标体系，利用物理学中的耦合协调模型从时间和空间两个角度对二者之间的协调关系进行实证分析。研究发现：就全国而言，2001～2013年我国商业保险和社会保险两个子系统的耦合度和协调度呈逐年上升的趋势，但是二者的耦合度始终处于颉颃阶段，二者的协调度由低度协调向中度协调转变；就区域而言，东、中、西部地区的耦合度和协调度存在明显的区域差异，东部地区的耦合协调度明显高于中西部地区，耦合度一直处于颉颃阶段，协调度是中度协调关系，而中西部地区耦合度一直处于低水平耦合阶段，协调度是低度协调关系；就省际而言，经过十多年的发展，省际之间的协调关系发生了较大变化，2001年中度协调的省份有9个，而2013年为19个，2001年低度协调的省份有18个，而2013年为7个。商业保险和社会保险耦合协调关系的空间格局也由2001年从东到西递减的“T”型格局转变成2013年较为均衡的格局。

There is a close relationship between commercial insurance and social insurance. With the development of economy, the improvement of income and living standard, social insurance has been far from satisfying people＇ s insurance needs. As a result, commercial insurance has become a powerful supplement to social insurance. Therefore, it is of a great significance to study the coupling and coordination between them and to realize their coordinated development. Based on the data from 2001 to 2013 of 30 Chinese provinces, a coupling coordination model and an evaluation indicators system were set up, and an empirical research on the coupling coordination relationship between commercial insurance and social insurance has been done from the spatiotemporal dimension. The research reveals that ： （ 1 ） from the national perspective, the coupling degree and coordination degree of China＇ s commercial insurance and social insurance show a rising trend, but the coupling between the two is always at the antagonistic stage. The coordination degree between the two has risen from low to moderate levels; （2） from the regional perspective, the coupling degree and coordination degree of eastern, central and western regions exist significant regional differences. The coupling coordination degree of eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions with the coupling degree remains antagonistic and the coordination degree a moderate relationship. The degree of coupling of the central and western regions has been at a low level, and the coordination degree exhibits a low but harmonious relationship; （3） from the provincial perspective, after 10 years development, inter-provincial coordination has shown great changes. In 2001, there were 9 provinces showing moderate coordination. In 2013, the number increased to 19. In 2001 18 provinces had a low coordination, and in 2013 the number decreased to 7. The coupling coordination relationship between commercial insurance and social insurance has obvious characteristics of space-diffusion and time-variation, and the regional distribution has been transformed from a ＂T＂ type polarization from eastern to western provinces to a more balanced spatial structure.