“新常态”下农用地流转影响因子实证研究——以长沙市望城区为例

Empirical Research on the Affecting Factors on Agricultural Land Transfer in the "New Normal"——A Case Study of Wangcheng District of the City of Changsha

文章基于新常态背景,从经济发展水平、产业结构、投资结构、城乡收入分配结构、就业结构以及创新驱动6个方面选取了12个指标,首先运用主成分分析,浓缩信息,提取主要影响因子,再运用灰色关联分析中的广义灰色广联分析,从绝对关联度、相对关联度、综合关联度三个方面进行分析得出:固定资产投资与GDP比值与农用地流转的关联度最大,机耕面积占总播种面积比值次之,城乡居民收入比排第三,人均生产总值排最后。建议:(1)调控投资增速,规范房地产行业发展;(2)优化产业结构,加强招商引资;(3)完善农村基础设施,加大创新驱动投入;(4)适度规模经营,警惕农地"非农化"。

This paper has chosen 12 indexes from the range of the level of economic development, industrial structure, investmentstructure, urban and rural income distribution structure, employment structure, and innovation-driven. On this basis, it has extractedmain factors by the principal component analysis and information compression, and then analyzed absolute correlation degree, relativerelation degree, and comprehensive correlative degree by generalized gray correlation analysis. The results show that investment inthe fixed assets to GDP ratio is most closely linked to agricultural land transfer, the machine-cultivated area to total planting area ratiocomes second, and the urban- rural income ratio ranks the third, with per capita GDP at the bottom. In response to this situation, thispaper proposes that we must lay emphasis on the following： regulating investment growth, working to ensure the development ofthe real estate will meet all relevant standards, optimizing the industrial structure, enhancing efforts to attracting foreign businessesand investment, improving rural infrastructure construction and stepping up efforts to increasing investment in innovation-drivendevelopment, and projecting the moderate-scale management and being vigilant against “farmland conversion”.