金融结构、产业结构优化与经济增长——基于中部六省的实证分析

Financial Structure and Industrial Structure Optimization and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study Based on the Six Provinces in Central China

根据中部六省1994~2013年的样本数据,建立面板向量自回归模型（PVAR）,通过脉冲响应和方差分解考察产业结构优化、经济增长和金融结构之间的互动机制。结果表明：金融结构和产业结构优化、经济增长之间存在着互动机制。但三者之间的影响是非均衡的,经济增长与产业结构优化之间互为因果关系,经济增长与金融总量结构互为因果关系,产业结构优化与金融融资结构互为因果关系。长期来看,金融总量结构优化对产业结构优化的贡献要大于产业结构优化对金融总量结构优化的贡献。经济增长对金融融资结构优化的贡献大于金融融资结构优化对经济增长的贡献。

This paper based its research on the data samples of six provinces in central China from1994 to 2013 and PVAR model, investigated the interactive mechanism among industrial structureoptimization, economic growth and financial structure by utilizing impulse response and variancedecomposition. The result shows that an interactive mechanism exists in financial structure andindustrial structure optimization and economic growth. But the influence of the three aspects is notbalanced. The relation between economic growth and industrial structure optimization is a cause andeffect relation, the relation between economic growth and total financial volume structure is a causeand effect relation, and the relation between industrial structure optimization and financing structureis also a cause and effect relation. In the long run, total financial volume’s contribution to industrialstructure optimization is more than industrial structure optimization＇s contribution to total finance volume structure. Economic growth＇s contribution to financing structure is more than financing structure＇ s contribution to economic growth.