呼和浩特至张家口客专本线客流预测研究

The Basic Line Prediction Research of Passenger Dedicated Line from Huhehaote to Zhangjiakou

随着社会经济的快速发展,我国铁路客运业也得到迅猛发展。铁路客运量的预测是运能分配、产品设计以及制定营销策略的基础。使用我国铁路客流预测普遍采用的"四阶段"预测法对新建呼和浩特市到张家口市本线客流进行预测。在有无呼和浩特至张家口客运专线的情况下,首先,使用重力模型对本线直接客运需求进行预测;其次,使用logit模型对直接需求进行运输方式分配;最后,在有呼和浩特至张家口客运专线的情况下对产生的转移运量和诱增运量分别进行计算。计算结果证明,呼和浩特至张家口客运专线对于本线旅客出行影响较大,结论可为本线旅客列车开行方案制定提供依据。

With the rapid development of the society economy,the railway industry has been rapid development.Railway passenger traffic forecast is the base of capacity allocation,product design and marketing strategy.By using the generally used method flow prediction ＂four stages＂ of China＇s railway passenger,to predict the basic line from Huhehaote to Zhangjiakou.Under the situation of without Huhehaote to Zhangjiakou line,firstly to use gravity model to this line directly to forecast passenger demand;and then using the logit model to simulate the direct demand distribution mode of transportation;finally,under the situation of Huhehaote to Zhangjiakou line,calculate the transfer traffic volume and induced traffic volume respectively.The Calculation results show that it has large effect on passenger dedicated line for this travel,at the same time,it also provides the evidence.