一带一路背景下基础设施PPP项目风险分担研究

Risk Allocation in Infrastructure Public Private Partnerships Based on the Belt and Road

一带一路PPP项目面临着巨大的风险,项目成功与否的决定性因素是风险的合理分担,不合理的风险分担会影响项目参与者的积极性,有损项目整体收益。在PPP项目风险分担原则的基础上,将风险分为自担风险和共担风险,运用随机合作博弈模型确定双方共担风险的分担比例。通过建立一带一路PPP项目风险分担模型,实现一带一路PPP项目最优风险策略组合。

The infrastructure PPP project faces enormous risks. Reasonable risk allocation is the key to the success of the PPP projects in the Belt and Road. Not only reducing the enthusiasm of the participant but also decreasing the income of the project when allocated inappropriately, but also leading to the revenue loss. Dividing risk into independent risk and to- tal risk based on the principle of risk allocation on PPP project,and using the stochastic cooperative game model to determine the proportion of sharing risk. In consideration of the risk preference of the participants and based on the theory of stochastic cooperative games , this paper establish the optimal combination of PPP project risk strategy considering the risk preference of the participants.