基于贝叶斯理论的武器装备质量评估方法研究

Research on Military Equipment Quality Evaluation Method Based on Bayes Theory

目的面对不断变化的未来不确定战场环境,在有限资源和技术水平下,提出一种有效的武器装备质量评估方法。方法将专家调查法与贝叶斯网络法相结合,用专家调查法对装备整体质量的重要度进行描述,在科学选取装备质量指标的基础上,利用贝叶斯网络的推理功能估算装备质量变化情况,构建基于贝叶斯网络的武器装备质量评估模型。结果该方法评价过程中减少了主观因素的影响,准确性较高。结论该方法发挥了专家调查法对于模糊信息的定量判断能力,突出了贝叶斯网络方法处理非线性关系及预测和诊断的能力,有利于对装备质量做出科学合理的评估。

Objective To propose a kind of effective method to evaluate the quality of weapons under the limited resources and technical level when faced with the constantly changing and uncertain battlefield environment in future. Methods The expert investigation method and Bayes networks were combined. The importance level of the entire equipment quality was described in expert investigation method. Based on the scientific selection of equipment quality indicators, the reasoning function of Bayes networks was used to estimate the changes in equipment quality, and weapon quality evaluation model based on Bayes networks was established. Results The evaluation method reduced the effect of subjective factors and had higher accuracy. Conclusion The evaluation method has demonstrated that the expert investigation method is able to make a judgment on vague information and highlighted the ability of the Bayes networks to deal with non-linear relationship and make estimations and diagnosis. Therefore the method can make scientific and reasonable evaluation on equipment quality.