制造业产业结构与就业结构的协调性研究

Research on the Coordination between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Manufacturing Industry

本文根据1998～2013年制造业细分行业的产出与就业等数据,分别运用结构协调度和结构偏离度来测量制造业总体和制造业三大子行业产业结构与就业结构的协调程度。结果发现制造业总体的协调度呈现出先恶化再改善的倒＂U＂型的走势,制造业三大子行业结构偏离度的走势虽各有特点,但与制造业总体协调度大体保持了一致性。此外,本文采用了偏最小二乘模型（PLS）对影响制造业产业结构和就业结构协调性的因素进行了分析,结果表明制造业发展战略、对外开放程度、市场化程度、劳动者素质和技术进步是影响产业结构与就业结构协调性的主要因素。

According to the output and employment data of 1998 - 2013 manufacturing industry, this article uses the structure of coordination degree and structure deviation to measure the industrial structure and employment structure of manufacturing industry and three subsectors of manufacturing industry respectively. The results show that manufacturing coordination degree shows an inverted ＂U＂ shaped trend of first deterioration and then improve. Although the structure deviation trend of three major subsystems has different characteristic, maintaining a consistent coordinated with the coordination degree of manufacturing industry generally. In addition, this paper uses partial least squares （PLS） model to analyze the influence factors of manufacturing industry structure and employment structure coordination. The results show that the development strategy of manufacturing industry, the degree of openness, the degree of marketization, labor quality and technological progress has certain influence to the coordination between industrial structure and employment structure.