基于人工神经网络的安徽省房价影响因素分析

Analysis of the Influence Factors for the Housing Price in Anhui Province Basing on Application of the Artical Neural Network

分析了影响安徽省房地产价格的因素,从供给和需求角度分别选取了安徽省商品房销售面积、房地产开发投资总额、安徽省商品房销售面积、城市人口密度、城镇家庭人均可支配收入和安徽省生产总值6个指标作为BP神经网络模型的输入变量,以安徽省平均商品房销售价格作为目标变量,采用安徽省1995-2014年数据对BP神经网络模型进行了训练。运用训练好的神经网络,通过对影响因素施加微扰观察对输出变量的影响来识别各影响因素的解释程度。通过实证分析发现,城市人口密度和生产总值对房价的解释程度较大,进而提出在人口政策放开背景下房价和人口数量实现协调发展的必要性。

The influence factors for real estate price in Anhui province were analyzed in the paper. It se- lected the commodity housing sale area of Anhui province, real estate development investment, the provin- cial commercial housing sales area, urban population density, urban per capita disposable income and An- hui GDP in the view of supply and demand. The six indexes as input variables for BP artificial neural net- work, and the index of average estate sale price in Anhui province as target variable, it used the data of 1995 -2014 year to traine the BP neural network. After the network been trained, it was used to analyze the influence factors＇ explain level with inflicting the explain variables. Through the empirical analysis, it found that urban population density and GDP have larger explain level, and put forward the necessity for harmonious development of the housing price and the population in the background of the population policy loosen.