澳门经济周期与就业波动的关联效应分析

The Relevant Effect of Economic Period and Employment Waving in Macao

随着经济结构转型和博彩娱乐业的快速发展,澳门经济周期波动依次呈现中增长和低波动、低增长和中波动、高增长和高波动的阶段性特征。基于澳门经济周期与就业波动关联效应的实证结果表明,虽然近10年澳门经济处于高增长和高波动阶段,澳门本地居民失业率却呈现直线下降趋势,本地居民就业市场并未随经济周期出现明显的波动特征。进一步研究发现,这一时期外地雇员正成为澳门就业人口的重要组成部分,且所占比重在持续上升,外地雇员人数与经济周期波动的趋势呈现高度一致性,充当着澳门本地居民就业市场波动的"缓冲器"作用,这对于理解澳门经济波动的就业影响具有启示作用。

Macao, with the economic restructuring and rapid development of gaming entertainment industry, has respectively shown periodic characteristics of moderate growth and small fluctuation, low growth with moderate fluctuation, and high growth withserious fluctuation. The empirical research results based on correlation effect of economic cycle and employment fluctuation suggest that even though Macao's economy is featured with high growth with large fluctuation in the last decades, the unemployment rate of local residents tends to go straight down and there is no significant fluctuation in the job market of local residents. Further study shows that during this period, migrant workers have become an important part of working population in Macao and its proportion is still rising. As the population of migrant workers and the tendency of economic cycle fluctuation is highly consistent, migrant workers act as the buffer for the job market of local residents, which contributes to a better understanding about how employment affects the economic fluctuation in Macao.