中国天然气资源流动优势度时空演变特征

Analysis of temporal and spatial evolution pattern of gas flow superiority in China

引入天然气资源流动优势度概念,对2000-2012年中国天然气资源流动输流地与汇流地优势度进行测算,并对其时空演变及影响因素进行研究,研究表明:1输流地、汇流地的数量及优势度随时间不断变化,表现出显著的地域差异性。2输流地优势度集聚性先降低后升高,热点区在西北部区域,空间上表现出向东南—西北方向分布,最后呈现出接近南北方向偏移;汇流地优势度空间上总体上呈现出增加的趋势,热点区在东部区域,空间分布呈现出由西北向东南移动趋势。3天然气资源流通条件及产量是输流地优势度空间格局变化主要影响因素;汇流地天然气资源消费、天然气工业及流通条件是汇流地优势度重心空间格局的主要影响因素,并且程度逐渐加强。

This paper introduces the concept of gas flow superiority. Compared with other areas, if an area has an advantage in gas flow which is led by flow scale, traffic, gas consumption and economy, we call it gas flow superiority. In this paper, the input superiority and output superiority are measured,and the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of gas flow is also analyzed. Some conclusions about the temporal and spatial evolution pattern are drawn as follows.（1） The number of input regions and output regions has been changing over time,and regional disparity in superiortiy is very obvious.（2） Spatial convergence characteristics of output superiority decreases at first and then increases. Hot spot is located in the northwest of China. Areal distribution direction has changed from northwest- southeast to approximate north-south.（3） Spatial convergence characteristics of input superiority show the gradually increasing trend. Hot spot is located in the east of China. Besides, the gas flow superiority is influenced by gas production, consumption and other factors. So these factors are also analyzed. Some conclusions are also drawn in the paper.（1） Flow conditions and gas production are the principal influencing factors which result in the changes of output regions.（2） For input regions, gas consumption, gas industry and flow conditions are the main factors, and the influence of these factors has been strengthening continuously. Based on the analysis of evolution pattern and influence factors of gas flow superiority, we propose the following suggestions.（1） Gas flow channels should be improved in the future. Gas flow mainly relies on pipeline transport and there still exist some disadvantages in gas pipeline transport. Thus, gas pipelines should be improved in various regions.（2） Gas demand also constantly strengthens the guidance of gas flow, and external dependency will also increase, therefore, imported pipelines and supporting infrastructure should be set up in order to meet demand.（3） It is an important mean to developing our gas industry to guarantee gas supply.（4） Dealing with the relationship of harmonious development among the gas reserves, pipelines and gas demand is very necessary to ensure reasonable distribution.