基于Logistic模型的食品可追溯系统决策方法

Decision-Making Method for Food Traceability System based on Logistic Model

以政府公共决策模型化研究为目标,提出了基于Logistic函数的食品可追溯系统决策优化模型,建立了均值意义下基于决策模型的行业生产者福利函数,利用实际的市场调查数据对模型参数进行了估计,在此基础上,将决策过程转化为一个凸优化问题,利用内点法求取了凸优化问题的最优解。研究表明:在以大规模高产品销售额的企业接受可追溯体系为主导下,政府资金补贴占每个单位实施可追溯技术费用比例以不高于1%时为最佳,企业预期收益为每个单位增加10%为最佳,由此达到可追溯体系实施效果的最佳状态;同时,垂直一体化程度适中且已通过质量认证体系的食品生产企业更容易实施可追溯体系。

Aimed at modeling the government＇s strategic public decision-making,we propose an optimization model for the traceable food system.A welfare function of industry producers,whose parameters have been estimated by actual data collected from market survey,is established based on the decision-making model under mean value.Then the decision-making procedure is transformed into a convex optimization problem,which is solved by the interior point method.The study shows that the optimal ratio of government subsidy to pay for the technology expenses of every unit is no more than 1%,leading to about ten-percent increase of expected profit for the enterprise whose decision is guided by the traceable system and has large productive scale and high sales prices.Thus the optimal condition can be obtained via implementation of the traceable system.Meanwhile,any enterprise with a suitable vertical integration rate and has passed some quality verification systems will find that it is easier to promote the implementation of the traceable system.