基于突变理论的员工主动离职行为定性模拟——以中国经济转型期的“离职潮”为例

Qualitative Simulation of Employee Turnover Behavior based on Catastrophe Theory:the Evidence from Demission in the Period of China's Economic Transformation

刘易斯拐点的到来导致中国劳动力成本大幅上升,这使得如何避免员工主动离职成为保证企业人力资源稳定的核心问题。针对离职行为这一复杂系统,从实证研究与突变理论相结合的全新视角,构建了员工主动离职的突变概念模型。在此基础上引入定性模拟算法,提出了突变函数在离职行为研究中的参数估计方法,并通过长三角地区某企业的实际案例验证了该方法的合理性及鲁棒性。最后,根据经济转型期的"离职潮",对员工主动离职的定性-定量混合突变模型进行虚拟实验分析。实验结果从精确测定员工离职的预警区、临界区和突变区及复杂经济环境与员工离职的关系,以及企业微观层面和政府宏观层面的控制策略等方面,为员工主动离职问题提供了决策支持。

The Lewisian turning-point leads to the significant increase of labor costs,and this makes how to reduce employee turnover intention becomes the key problem to ensure human resource stability in enterprises.We construct the catastrophe conceptual model of employee turnover from the new perspective of empirical study and catastrophe theory.Based on this model and qualitative simulation method,we present a parameter estimation method of the Cusp function formula and demonstrate the rationality and robustness of the method through a practical case in Yangtze River Delta.We further carry out the virtual experiments to analyze the mixing model according to the phenomenon of demission in the period of China＇s economic transformation.The result of the experiments provide support for the decision-making regarding how to accurately measured the warning,critical and mutation area of employee turnover;the relation between the complex economic environment and the demission of employees;and the control policy from the macroscopic governmental measures and microscopic enterprise ways.