岩爆烈度分级预测的云模型法及其应用

Normal cloud model for rockburst intensity forecast and its application

针对深埋引水隧洞岩爆分级预测问题,引入云模型理论建立了基于PPA-正态云的岩爆分级预测模型。在综合分析影响岩爆发生相关因素的基础上,选取了单轴抗压强度与岩石抗拉强度之比、岩石切向应力与单轴抗压强度之比、弹性变形能指数以及岩石脆性指数为本次岩爆分级预测的评价指标体系。根据既定体系确定了相应评价标准,采用投影寻踪分析确定各指标权重,由云模型正向发生器计算各指标的确定度并生成相应的云图,在此基础上给出岩爆分级预测结果。以国内外7个深埋引水隧洞为例建模计算并与其他预测方法计算结果进行比较,表明利用所提出方法可以得出准确的结果。

A model based on normal cloud model and Projection Pursuit Analysis has been established to forecast rockburst intensity of large deep buried diversion tunnels. Based on comprehensive analysis of the related influential factors on the rockburst,we select 4 factors as the assessment indicators for the intensity evaluation,including the elastic strain energy index,the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to tensile strength,the ratio of tangential stress to uniaxial compressive strength,and the rock brittleness index. The corresponding assessment standard are determined by the given indicators,and the weights of indicators are calculated based on Projection Pursuit Analysis,finally,the certainty degree of each indicator is calculated by normal cloud generator and the cloud graph is given. Combining with 7 deep buried tunnel cases,the forecasted results are compared with those of other prediction methods,which shows that the presented method can obtain accurate results.