2005—2014年国际原木贸易格局的社会网络分析

Social Network Analysis on International Roundwood Trade Pattern in 2005—2014

采用社会网络分析方法,利用2005—2014年世界120个国家(地区)原木进出口贸易数据,对国际原木贸易网络的网络密度、中心性及核心节点等指标进行计算,对国际原木贸易网络核心—边缘结构进行分析。研究结果表明:国际原木贸易的发展受到世界经济形势和政府原木进出口政策的显著影响;大部分国家(地区)原木贸易伙伴少、贸易量小,只有少数贸易伙伴较多、贸易量大;美国一直是原木进出口贸易的核心国家,德国是后加入的核心国家,属于金砖国家的中国、印度发展迅速,中国在2011年跻身核心国家行列。

This paper takes the roundwood trade data from 120 countries in 2005--2014 to calculate the density, centrality and key parts of the international timber trade network and analyzes its core-periphery structure by using social network analysis. The conclusions indicated that the development of the international roundwood trade is largely affected by the world economic situation and government policy on log trade; most countries have a small number of roundwood trading partners with a small volume of trade, while only few countries have a large number of partners with a large volume of trade; the USA remains always as a core country in terms of roundwood trade, and Germany is the core country lately acceded in the network, while China and India as the BRIC countries have undergone a fast development; China became one of the core trade countries in 2011.