地方财政收入超经济增长之谜——基于税收任务刚性约束效应的实证研究

Riddle of the Ultra Local Fiscal Revenue Increase in China:An Empirical Research Based on Rigid Public Revenue Plan

从理论和实证两个方面考察支出需求刚性、税收任务与地方财政收入超经济增长的关系,构建了一个＂在支出需求刚性的背景下,地方政府通过税收任务,倒逼地方财政收入超经济增长＂的理论假说,然后运用中国31个省级行政区1998~2014年的数据样本,采用多种静态和动态面板模型,对这一理论假说进行了实证检验。结果表明,税收任务对地方财政收入超经济增长的刚性约束机制确实存在,地方税收收入和非税收入存在＂此消彼长＂关系或者说＂替代＂关系,非税收入是地方财政收入增长的＂稳定器＂。

This paper investigates the relationship among rigid public expenditure,public revenue plan and ultra local fiscal revenue increase in China,both theoretically and empirically. We establish a theoretical model,where public revenue plan spurs ultra local fiscal revenue increase under the background of rigid public expenditure in China. Using provincial data from 1998 to 2012 in China,our empirical study based on various static and dynamic panel data models provides strong evidence for the theoretical implication. The results imply that public revenue plan really forces ultra local fiscal revenue to increase. Nontax revenue has the ＂replacement＂relation with tax revenue,and it plays the ＂stabilizer＂function in the mechanism.