珠江三角洲地区近30年降雨变化趋势及其与气溶胶的关系

Precipitation Change Trend in Pearl River Delta Area and Relation with Aerosol from 1980 to 2010

基于珠江三角洲地区1980-2010年0.5°×0.5°经纬度网格的逐月降水资料,利用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法,对珠江三角洲地区近30年的降雨趋势特征进行了分析。研究表明：珠三角地区2-4月降雨量存在显著下降趋势,而6-9月降雨量有显著的上升趋势。从气溶胶的角度对这种趋势产生的原因进行了分析,针对珠三角地区2-4月和6-9月不同的降雨类型,提出气溶胶物质的增多在一定程度上抑制了2-4月锋面雨的形成,而对6-9月台风雨的产生也存在可能影响的假设,并从降雨机制上进行了解释。

Based on the monthly precipitation data in the Pearl River Delta Area from 1980 to 2010, a Mann-Kendall trend test was made in this paper. The results show that the rainfall in the Pearl River Delta Area has a significant declining trend from February to April and a significant de- creasing trend from June to September. This paper analyzed the causes of this trend from the perspective of aerosol. The precipitation, which is from February to April, has different rainfall patterns, compared to the precipitation from June to September, this paper hypothesized the increase of aerosol substance, to some extent, inhibited the formation of frontal gland precipitation from February to April and may also has some influence in the typhoon rain from June to September. There is also an explanation of the hypothesis.