摘要
利用7个参加耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的全球气候模式模拟数据,在RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种排放情景下,从年、季、月尺度上对中国以及中国的7个区域的气温和降水进行未来情景预估分析。分析结果表明：2010-2099年,两种情景下中国的气温增加明显,并呈现出春弱秋冬（尤其是一、八、九、十一、十二月）强的特征,北部（N）、西北东部（ENW）、西北西部（WNW）、西藏（Tibet）的升温趋势高于其他地区。RCP8.5情景下的气温线性趋势值大部分都高于RCP4.5情景下的值。在RCP4.5情景下,2060-2099年东北部（NE）呈现降温。两种情景下,全国降水量也呈增加趋势,呈现由东南向西北递减的地理分布,并表现出冬弱春夏强的季节变化特征。西北西部（WNW）在全年降水偏少,春夏季黄河以北降水趋势较小,降水大值中心在长江以南地区,尤其是在五、六、七、八月份。秋季,在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下SE降水线性趋势分别低于或等于全国平均水平,东北部（NE）、北部（N）、西北东部（ENW）的降水线性趋势略高。在2010~2039年,在RCP8.5情景下西南（SW）的降水减少。
Based on outputs from 7 models that participate in CMIP5 under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） scenarios, to analyze and estimate the temperature and precipitation in the 7 regions of China using yearly, seasonal, monthly datasets. The results show that warming is expected in all regions of China and the linear trend of N, ENW, WNW and Tibet is higher than others under the RCP scenarios from 2010 to 2099, with the temperature in autumn and winter show greater wanning than in spring, especially in January, August, September, November and December. The trend of temperature for RCP8.5 is higher than the trend for RCP4.5 in most of the regions. It is noted that the temperature in NE will be cool during 2060-2099 under RCP4.5. The regional averaged precipitation will increase, present decreasing from the southeast to the northwest, and more stronger in spring and summer while weaker in winter. The linear trend of precipitation in WNW is the smallest in all the regions. North of the Yellow River precipitation trend is smaller, while the centre of precipitation is in the south of the Yangtze River in spring and summer, especially in May, June, July and August. In autumn, the trend in SE is lower and equal to the averaged level in China under RCPd.5, RCP8.5, respectively, and the slope of temperature is higher than others in NE, N, ENW. It is noted that precipitation will decrease in SW during 2010-2039 under RCP8.5.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期37-43,共7页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41323001
41201031)
