湖南“红三角”潜在游客时空分布特征及其影响因素

Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Potential Visitors in Hunan“Red Triangle"

收集湖南"红三角"潜在游客及其他相关数据,分析其时空分布特征及影响因素,构建相关模型,同时分析各影响因素的边际效应。结果发现:1受气候、节假日、重大事件等因素的影响,以天为单位的湖南"红三角"潜在游客年内时间变化呈锯齿状"M"形,以月为单位的湖南"红三角"潜在游客年内时间变化呈不规则"M"形,潜在游客年内各月分布相对平均,季节差异不大。2旅游旺季,周内潜在游客变化有较强的规律性,周中高,周末、周初略低;旅游淡季,周内潜在游客变化规律不明显;春节、十一"黄金周"潜在游客变化呈倾斜的"L"形,春节潜在游客峰值出现较晚。3"红三角"潜在游客空间分布主要受到各省区人口基数、经济发展水平、网络普及率、受教育程度、空间距离等因素的影响,各省区潜在游客大致以湖南为中心,向外逐步减少,年内各月潜在游客分布具有波动性。

The data of potential visitors about Hunan ＂Red Triangle＂ and other related data were collected to analyze its temporal and spatial dis- tribution characteristics and influence factors. On the basis of such data, a model was built to analyze the marginal effect of various influencing factors. The results showed that ： ① By the influence of climate, holidays, events and other factors, to the day as the time unit of Hunan＂ Red Triangle＂ changed during the year jagged shape of ＂M＂, the monthly time unit of Hunan＂Red Triangle＂ annual variation of irregular shaped of ＂M＂, the monthly distri- bution of potential visitors relatively average and seasonal difference was small. ②The busy tourism season, weekly change of potential visitors had ob- vious regularity, the middle of a week higher than weekend and the beginning of the week, to the low tourism season, weekly change of potential visi- tors was not obviously, potential visitors of the Spring Festival golden week and the National Day golden week were inclined to the inverted ＂L＂ shape, and the peak of the Spring Festival showed up late.③Spatial distribution of potential visitors in Hunan ＂Red Triangle＂ was mainly affected by each province of base population, economic development level, the network popularization rate, level of education, space distance etc, each province roughly with the center of Hunan, reduced outward gradually, monthly distribution during the year of potential visitors had volatility.