摘要
基于IPCC最新风险评估理论模型,以高精度地理信息数据、长序列均一化气象资料和2010基准年社会经济数据等资料为基础,运用统计建模方法,从气象致灾因子危险性、暴露度和脆弱性3个方面对河北地区暴雨洪涝灾害进行精细化风险评估与区划,并根据区划结果提出防御措施。结果显示:滦河流域下游以及沿海诸河流域的暴雨洪涝风险最高;平原地区的暴雨洪涝灾害风险普遍高于山区,流域下游风险高于上游,河道周边风险高于远离河流的区域。
Based on the latest model of risk assessment by IPCC, the data including high- resolution geographic data, normalized meteorological data with long series and socioeconomic data in 2010 wereanalyzed by using statistical method and modeling approach. The meteorological hazard, exposure degree andfragility were used for refined risk zoning of storm and flood disaster in Hebei. Some defensive measures wereproposed according to the risk zoning consequence. The results showed that： the risk in the lower reaches ofLuanhe river basin and coastal river basin was the highest; the risk in plain area was higher than that of mountain regions generally, and the lower reaches＇ risk was higher, so was risk in regions near river side.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第23期142-147,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
河北省山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程建设项目
河北省自然基金项目"基于FloodArea水动力模型的山洪灾害风险动态评估技术研究"(D2015304004)
河北省气象局科研开发项目"滦河流域不同雨型致灾临界面雨量确定"(15ky05)
