庆阳冬半年最低气温的变化特征分析

Variation Characteristics of the Minimum Temperature During Winter Half Year in Qingyang

为了研究庆阳市冬半年最低气温变化特征,分析气候变化对农业生产的影响,根据庆阳有代表性的3个站的冬半年平均最低气温资料,使用统计检验方法,分析了1960年以来庆阳冬半年最低气温的时空变化规律及最低气温突变事实。结果表明:庆阳在55年以来,冬半年最低气温在波动中呈上升趋势,以南部塬区最为显著。在资料分析期内,最低气温均发生显著突变,进入异常增暖时期。因此,庆阳各地的冬半年最低气温的波动升高,农耕期延长,热量资源增加,为当地的特色农业及农业产业结构调整带来新的发展空间,但由此带来的病虫害流行蔓延风险增大,应引起重视。

In order to study the variation characteristics of the minimum temperature during winter half year in Qingyang, and analyze the impact of climate change on agricultural production, based on the average minimumtemperature data of 3 stations, the spatial and temporal variation of the minimum temperature from 1960 andthe mutation of the minimum temperature were analyzed by using statistical test method. The results showedthat： in the 55 years, the minimum temperature during winter half year in Qingyang was rising in volatility, andthe variation was the most significant in the southern plateau region. In the analysis period, the minimumtemperature had significant mutations and entered into abnormal warming period. Therefore, the minimumtemperature gradually increased during the winter half year in Qingyang. The extension of farming period andthe increase of heat resources brought new development opportunities for local agriculture as well as the high risk of the spread of pests and diseases.