制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率提高

Structure Changes in Manufacturing Industry and Efficiency Improvement in Economic Growth

从长期看,制造业结构变迁促进经济增长效率提高,但是短期内受多种因素的制约,制造业结构变迁不一定伴随高端制造业的高附加值,经济增长效率不一定提高。本文基于OECD制造业分类方法将制造业分为3类,从总产值、增加值、固定资产净值等多维度测度制造业结构的高度化和合理化,构建制造业结构变迁与经济增长效率的计量模型,采用系统广义矩估计(GMM)法进行了实证检验。结果表明:制造业结构高度化对经济增长效率具有负面作用,制造业结构合理化对经济增长效率具有正面作用。经济增长效率采用经济增长集约化和投入产出率衡量,每个维度的制造业结构高度化和合理化分别采用两种方法测度,不同方法测度变量的估计结果一致。本文进一步分析认为,制造业结构高度化抑制经济增长效率提高,与中国制造业不断升级却一直处于全球价值链低端的事实吻合,制造业结构高度化却没有伴随高附加值化是重要原因。

Changes of manufacturing structures could improve efficiency of economic growth. But changes of manufacturing structure are not always associated with high value-added of high-technology industries for restriction of various factors in the short term, and efficiency of economic growth don＇t improve. Manufacturing industries are divided into high-technology, mid-technology and low-technology industries by OECD＇s method of industrial classification, so that upgrading and rationalization of manufacturing structure could be measured from multi-dimension such as output value, net value of fixed assets and added value, and paper build econometric models of changes of manufacturing structure and efficiency of economic growth which were tested by GMM. Results show that upgrading of manufacturing structures had negative effect on efficiency of economic growth, and rationalization of manufacturing structure had positive effect on its. Efficiency of economic growth are measured by intensive level of economic growth and rate of input-output, upgrading and rationalization of manufacturing structures are respectively measured with two methods from each dimension, which estimation results are consistent. Article finds that upgrading of manufacturing structures could inhibit efficiency of economic growth, and which is consistent with the fact of manufacturing in low-end of the global value chain in the process of manufacturing structural upgrading in China. Important reasons that upgrading of manufacturing structure could hinder efficiency of economic growth weren＇t with high value-added.