进口价格波动对中国乳制品进口来源布局的影响研究

The Influence of Import Price Fluctuation on the Distribution of the Sources of China's Dairy Imports

本文使用2012年1月—2016年3月海关月度数据,采用动态和静态AIDS模型,分别从短期和长期视角,实证分析了进口价格波动和中澳自贸协定生效对中国乳制品进口来源布局的影响。结果表明:由于长期协整关系存在,短期内乳制品进口对长期均衡水平的偏离将在下月被修正80%左右。乳清进口格局相对稳定,法国和美国乳清产品相对割裂,两国乳清并不能完全替代;随着乳制品需求增加,中国倾向于进口更多的奶粉。长期来看,国际奶粉价格下降使得中国进口来源将更趋向于澳大利亚和新西兰,而其他地区份额将伴随性下降。中澳自贸协定的实施,预计将使中国自澳大利亚和新西兰奶粉进口量提升10%左右,使中国自澳大利亚奶粉进口量提高35%左右。中国液态奶进口市场对新西兰依赖度较强,澳大利亚和法国更易受到价格冲击,进口量相对不稳定。

This study used dynamic and static AIDS model, from the perspectives of both short-term and long-term, empirical analysis the impact of import price fluctuations and China-Australia FTA on imports of Chinese dairy source Distribution. The result shows that whey import distribution is relatively stable, France and the United States＇ whey cannot entirely replace; As dairy demand increases, tend to import more milk powder in China.In the long run, the international sources of milk powder imports failing prices make China will tend to Australia and New Zealand, other parts of the country compressed. The implementation of the China-Australia FTA will make China from Australia and New Zealand milk powder imports to rise by 10%, improve China＇s imports milk powder from Australian by 35%. China＇s import market for liquid milk are more depended on in New Zealand, Australia and France are more susceptible to price shocks, imports are relatively instable.