城市化进程中农村劳动力的留守、进城与回流

Rural Labourer' Remaining in Rural,Rural-urban Migration,or Returning to Rural during Urbanisation Process

文章将农村劳动力留守、进城与回流的差异选择纳入人口流动的全过程框架,利用2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据与对应统计数据进行分析,探讨农村劳动力自身经济特征对差异化流动选择的影响。研究发现,人力资本相对较低者更愿意留守农村,人力资本相对较高者则倾向于进城,但部分"夹心层"进城后难以稳定立足而选择回流。家庭经济条件好可以增强农村劳动力主动进城的意愿,并对其留在城市有支持作用;未成年子女抚养压力是被动进城的重要原因,子女过多会带来后顾之忧。家乡总体发展水平高对农村劳动力进城有促进作用,而家乡农村经济效益好会增加其进城的机会成本。家乡农村互联网及移民网络为进城带来便利,家乡交通便捷性差将增加回流概率。文章建议加大教育培训方面的支农力度,深化二元制度改革,完善劳动力输出地区对外基础设施,并支持回流群体在农业现代化中发挥更大作用。

This paper builds a whole-process framework of migration which contains the different decisions of remaining in rural(RIR),rural-urban migration(RUM) and returning to rural(RTR),and makes an empirical analysis of the effects on decisions from selves' economic characteristics based on 2013 Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS) data and corresponding official statistical data.The research shows that low human capital labourers prefer to choose RIR while others prefer to choose RUM,and some middle human capital labourers intend to RTR because their lives cannot be stable in cities.Better families' economic condition encourages labourers' active RUM and provides supports to city living.More children to raise not only increase labourers' passive RUM but also bring with burdens.Higher level of hometowns' development makes more labourers to choose RUM,but agricultural advantage increases the opportunity cost of RUM.The web using and the migrant network increase convenience of RUM,and bad transportation infrastructure causes more labourers choose RTR.Therefore,this paper suggests that the government ought to strengthen rural education,deepen the reform of urban-rural dual systems,improve migrant-out regions' infrastructures,and help the RTR labourers to play a more significant role in agricultural modernisation process.