上海市人口分布变化——基于居村委数据的分析

The Changing Population Distribution of Shanghai Metropolis:A Study Based on Data of Residents/villages' Committee Units

文章运用第五次、第六次全国人口普查上海市居村委数据,建立上海人口地理信息库,发现上海城市扩张主要的空间范围及前沿地带为外环线附近工业集聚带以内地区,中心城空心化与局部填充同时进行;但在中心城及其毗邻的近郊区因存在城市大型工业、商业用地和公共绿化等非居住面积,其人口密度被低估。比较单中心、多中心城市人口分布模型的拟合结果,上海仍然是统计意义上的单中心城市,人口密度衰减的梯度高于同时期若干国外大城市,但低于广州、西安等城市,人口分布总体趋向均衡。逻辑斯蒂曲线对上海人口分布的拟合效果最优,这主要是由于中心城人口密度居高不下。研究结果表明,多中心城市模型的拟合优度明显不及单中心模型,城市主中心的相对作用略有弱化。

Using the 5th and 6th census data in basic statistical units of so called residents' committees and village committes to build up Shanghai population geographical information system,this paper summarises population distribution of Shanghai metropolis.Based on the data of spatial statistical units,the paper demonstrates spatial scales and forward positions of a rolling-out spreading in Shanghai.The mono-centric urban expansion process has reached the industrial zone that is outside the outer ring.While the inner city is hollowing out,there still exit neighbourhoods that gain residents.The existence of non-residential land use inevitably causes undervalued population density,which is more obvious in the inner city and the near suburb.Shanghai is still a mono-centric city statistically.The gradient of population dencity in Shanghai is higher than that in some metropolises of other countries but is lower than that in some domestic cities,such as Guangzhou and Xi'an.The population distribution of Shanghai tends to be more even.Logistic model is more appropriate for Shanghai than classic Clark models because of high population density of a mono-centric area.Multi-centered model's goodness of fit is less than that of mono-centric model,and its parameter indicates that the dominate influence of the urban CBD is weakening.