喀什地区夏玉米发育期与气象因子关系分析

Analysis of the Relationship Between Summer Corn Development and Meteorological Factors in Kashgar Region

利用喀什地区1961-2013年6-9月气温、日照时数、降水量月资料及 1990-2013年玉米生育期资料,选取资料完整的4个代表站, 采用一元线性回归分析方法, 分析喀什地区气候变化及玉米生育期变化特征, 重点探讨喀什近期气候变化对玉米生产的影响.结果表明： 近 53a 喀什市、巴楚县、叶城县 6-9月平均、平均最高平均最低气温及降水量总体呈上升趋势;日照时数, 喀什市和巴楚县总体呈增加趋势,叶城县 9月日照时数呈减少趋势;麦盖提县7-9 月平均气温、 8月降水量, 6、 8、 9 月日照时数呈下降 （减少） 趋势.喀什市、 巴楚县玉米各发育期均呈不同程度的提前趋势; 叶城县玉米各发育期的提前 （推迟） 趋势不明显,其中播种期、七叶期呈较弱的提前趋势 （0.06耀0.67 d/10a） ,其它发育期呈延迟趋势,趋势为0.01耀2.92 d/10a,其中抽雄始期、开花始期的延迟趋势相对明显, 通过了a=0.05显著性检验; 麦盖提县玉米8月出现的抽雄期、开花期、吐丝普期呈延迟趋势外,其余的发育期均表现出不同程度的提前趋势.

To obtain the impacts of climate change on corn yield in Kashgar region, the data of temperature, sunshine time and rainfall data from June to September during the period of 1961-2013 and the growth data of corn in four representative stations during period of 1990-2013 were analyzed by linear regression. The results showed that the average temperature, average maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation from June to September showed an increasing trend in Kashgar, Bachu county, Yecheng county in past 53 years. The sunshine time showed an increasing trend in Kashgar and Bachu county, but showed a reducing trend in Yecheng county. The average temperature from July to September, precipitation in August and the sunshine time in June, August and September show down trends. In each development period of corn showed different advancing trends in Kashgar and Bachu county, but it was not significant in Yecheng county. Among them, the seeding time and seven leaf stage showed insignificant advancing trends( 0.06 ~0.67 d/10 a) in Yecheng county, whereas the other developmental phase showed delaying trends( 0.01~2.92 d/10 a).In Maigaiti country, the tasseling stage, flowering period, spinning period in August showed delaying trends, meanwhile the other development stages show different trends in advance.