民用机场航站楼群体性事件预警研究

Early Warning Research on Terminal Mass Incidents of Civil Airport

由于我国民航业的迅速发展,民航运输服务质量越来越被看重,并且被纳入了国家"十三五"规划纲要。而民用机场航站楼群体性事件的发生严重妨碍了民航运输服务质量的提升,并且给机场、航空公司和社会都会带来恶劣的影响。因此,对民用机场航站楼群体性事件进行提前预判研究,避免其带来的严重后果具有很深的现实意义。通过运用模糊综合评价的方法,选取航班平均延误时间、机场航空公司处置措施、人群密度以及人群聚类外形作为评价指标,依据变异系数法确定指标权重,建立民用机场航站楼群体性事件预警体系。通过国内某机场实例检验,表明模型有约80%的预警正确率,可以提供有效的决策辅助。

Because of the rapid development of civil aviation,the service quality of it has been focused on and belonged to National Thirteenth Five-year Planning Outline. Terminal mass incidents will hamper the promotion of civil aviation service quality and cause wicked influences to the airport,the airlines and even the society,so it is meaningful to do research on it. In this paper,we will use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to judge the situation. Selected the flight average delay time,the airport airlines disposal measures,the population density and the crowds gathered appearance as four evaluation indexes,through variation coefficient method to determine the index weight,and then build the early warning system of terminal mass incidents. At last we use the history statistics of an International Airport to examine the efficiency of the early warning system and found that the accuracy of the model is about 80%. It can do provide valid assist on decision making.