技术市场对产业结构调整的促进效应——以北京技术市场为例

Positive Effect of Technology Market on Adjustment of Industrial Structure:Taking Beijing′s Technology Market as Example

针对技术市场对产业结构调整的作用机制,利用Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法或工具,实证分析并对比了北京技术市场与全国产业结构和北京产业结构的作用关系。结果显示:北京技术市场与全国和北京的产业结构均存在因果联系,并对全国第一产业产值比重的提升起抑制作用,对全国第二、第三产业产值比重的提升起促进作用,对北京第一、第三产业产值比重的提升起促进作用,对北京第二产业产值比重的提升起抑制作用;北京地区的产业结构仍未发展到以第三产业为主导的阶段。

According to the effect mechanism of technology market on the adjustment of industrial structure,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between Beijing′s technology market and national industrial structure and Beijing′s industrial structure by Granger causality test,VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition method.The result shows as follows:there is a causal relationship between Beijing′s technology market and industrial structure;Beijing′s technology market hinders the increase of the proportion of national primary industry output value,and promotes the increase of the proportion of national secondary industry output value and national tertiary industry output value;Beijing′s technology market hinders the increase of the proportion of Beijing′s secondary industry output value,and promotes the increase of the proportion of Beijing′s primary industry output value and Beijing′s tertiary industry output value;Beijing's industrial structure has not yet developed to the stage in which tertiary industry are leading industry.