农户适应气候变化的行为及影响因素--基于实验经济学方法的研究

Farmer coping behavior in climate change and affecting factors:method of experimental economics

农户对气候变化的适应性研究是当前国内外学术界的一个重点领域.本文通过入户问卷调查和结构式访谈,分析了安徽省宿州市埇桥区农户对气候变化风险的认知,利用实验经济学的MPL方法量化了农户的风险偏好特征,并运用probit模型分析了农户适应气候变化行为的影响因素.研究结果表明,大部分农户感知到了气候变化及其给农业生产带来的风险,并采取了多种适应行为,农户的风险偏好、对气候变化风险的感知以及耕种年限等对其气候变化适应决策的采取具有显著的正向影响.因此,未来气候变化适应政策的制定和实施,应针对不同特征的农户群体,采取不同的适应策略.

Farmer adaptability to climate change has been given increasing attention. Questionnaires and interviews of farmers in Yongqiao District, Suzhou, China were used to analyze farmer recognition of climate change risks. A multiple price list design was used to estimate their risk attitude. The probit model was used to investigate factors affecting risk-coping behaviors. Samples were found to have good recognition of climate change risks. Most farmers have taken initiatives in adaptation. Adoption of coping behaviors is positively correlated mainly with farmer risk attitudes, recognition of climate change, and farming years. Therefore tactics with different characteristics should be employed when working out and implementing policy for adapting climate change in the future.