居民资产结构与金融体系的互动影响——以美国为例

Interaction Between Household Portfolio and Financial System——Based on the US Data

基于美国1959-2014年金融体系以及居民资产结构变化的季度数据,可以实证考察美国金融体系变革与居民资产结构变化的相互影响。结果表明,美国金融体系的变化与居民资产组合的选择存在着较为显著的互动关系。一方面,相对于银行信贷市场以及股票市场,债券市场的发展对于居民资产选择的影响具有替代效应;另一方面,居民持有现金存款类与股权类资产相对比例的变化也会影响银行信贷市场与股票市场的相对繁荣。因此,以美国的经验为启示,如何引导中国居民积极参与资本市场,进而实现"提高直接融资比例,服务经济转型"的改革目标,是当下及未来需要思考的一个重要课题。

Based on the quarterly data of the variations of the financial system and household asset structure from 1959 to 2014 in USA,the paper examines the interaction effect between the financial system and household portfolio.It shows that there is a significant interaction between the variations of the financial system and the household asset selection.Comparing to the bank credit market and stock market,on one hand,there is a substitution impact of the development of the bond market on the household portfolio choice;on the other hand,the relative weight of the currency and equity in the household financial asset affects the prosperity of the credit market and stock market.Therefore,in light of the experience of the US,how to lead the household to participate actively in the capital market in China,and realize the goal of increasing the proportion of the direct finance to serve the economic transformation,is an important topic at present and in the future.