基于空间相互作用模型和Markova链的人口流动分析——以江西省抚州市为例

Population flow analysis based on the spatial interaction model and Markova chain——Taking Fuzhou city,Jiangxi Province as an example

文章根据地区经济发展水平估算抚州市的合理人口,以此作为空间相互作用模型的到达数量,利用空间相互作用模型计算抚州市人口流动的合理格局,并运用Markov链预测未来抚州市人口流动的趋势。研究得出,临川区无论是人口流动还是远期的人口占比与抚州市其余县相比均有显著的优势。

According to regional economic development level, this article estimates the reasonable population of Fuzhou city, as the arrival quantity of spatial interaction model, and calculates the reasonable pattern of Fuzhou population flow by this model, and uses Markov chain to predict the future trend of Fuzhou population flow. Study shows that the population flow and long-term population proportion of LinChuan district have significant advantage in comparison to the rest county of Fuzhou.